mimic:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw/mainTPW.html

shows ul low moved through fla and moisture coming from tropical wave rounding the str

0627: eastpac qvhh + gfs t+12h

tight H-L NNE of HI

good rep in 12 h gfs, sharper in ecm, ukm q smoother

0627: lant - qvhh

need to comp tau12 -> cimms/jaawin imagery

tutt cell ~ 25N/45W good comp with model, also in moisture spots in itcz

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8wvir-3.html

ul cell E of s fla opened drifted WSW cell formed NE of yucatan
ecm did nice job, hmm about ukm drier...

0627: westpac hh flow/prw

tutt cell E of PI, ukm better job, but much dryer than ecm/gfs
system in N S china sea -- SW moonsoon + shear vort

0627: westpac

s china sea? no invest

wave going through marshalls?

dry W of PI...

0626: lant -- wave in carib

gfs digs 200 trough deeper than ecm at d+5 - ecm ridge over gom/west carib stronger than gfs

cold low SE of fla drift WSW over yucatan by 48 h




mimic http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw/mainTPW.html
shows nice progression of wave, gfs strongest at 700 of the models, by tau 60 (thur am 062812) gfs brings some precip, ditto for ngp/ecm, cmc slower

wave ~ 30W weakens in ngp
at tau 108 (say 3012) ecm weakens, trough clearing midlat eastcoast
gfs faster, stronger, ngp weakens reforms in west carib

0626: eastpac -- 93e

gfdl/hwrf run 2518/2600

93e tracked in ecm/ngp in psl/pr only ecm weak, ngp larger

gfs,cmc,ukm do not maintain

ecm started hitting on this from the 062300 run
by tau 72 only