gfs digs 200 trough deeper than ecm at d+5 - ecm ridge over gom/west carib stronger than gfs
cold low SE of fla drift WSW over yucatan by 48 h
mimic http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw/mainTPW.html
shows nice progression of wave, gfs strongest at 700 of the models, by tau 60 (thur am 062812) gfs brings some precip, ditto for ngp/ecm, cmc slower
wave ~ 30W weakens in ngp
at tau 108 (say 3012) ecm weakens, trough clearing midlat eastcoast
gfs faster, stronger, ngp weakens reforms in west carib
